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Predictive Performance on Metaculus vs. Manifold Markets
WEBMar 3, 2023 · TLDR. I analysed a set of 64 (non-randomly selected) binary forecasting questions that exist both on Metaculus and on Manifold Markets. The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64).
Metaculus.comMetaculus
WEBIf you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.
Metaculus.comPrediction Resources - Metaculus
WEBAvoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise.
Metaculus.com2024 US Election Hub - Metaculus
WEBExplore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map
Metaculus.comFAQ - Metaculus
WEBMetaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for thousands of forecasters, delivering machine learning-optimized aggregate forecasts on topics of global importance. The Metaculus forecasting community is often inspired by altruistic causes, and Metaculus …
Metaculus.comUser Profile: elifland | Metaculus
WEBMapping the future.
Metaculus.com